Q3 2019 Calgary Market Report
Class AA vacancy sits at 17.24%, Class A 24.07%, Class B 37.44% and Class C 28.58%. Absorption for the third quarter of 2019 was negative 33,560 square feet, which, on the heels of two quarters of positive absorption to kick off the year, brings the year-to-date tally to 369,255 square feet. With this level of absorption, it appears we will end the year with positive absorption at a level higher than what we’ve seen in the last five years.
Although we could be looking at positive absorption, it’s a marginal amount and the market will remain range-bound, having bounced around between 24% to 26% since 2016. To put this level of absorption into perspective, if we finish the year flat through Q4, vacancy will decrease by ~0.9%. If we call a balanced market 10% vacancy, we are over 15 years away from balance at this pace. What will be required to really move the market is significant absorption to the tune of +1M square feet and we don’t forecast this type of growth in the foreseeable future.